希拉蕊的最後機會: 密西根與佛羅里達

目前為止，根據CNN的最新數字，歐巴馬只需要42張代表人數的票，他就應該可以取得民主黨的提名。但是，若民主黨將Michigan 與 Florida 的票也算進去，那我們還有一段戲可以看吧。(之前 Michigan 與 Florida 兩大州偷跑，提前舉辦黨內初選，觸犯了民主黨的黨規，因此依規定他們的代表不算。希拉蕊在那兩州大勝!) 我個人反對算那兩州。

我不是有性別歧視 (難道對希拉蕊反敢就是嗎?)，但是希拉蕊若領先，他真的就會那麼積極的位Michigan 與 Florida 的選民聲冤嗎? 我的反對論點也不在這。

重點是，歐巴馬因為以為哪兩州的票不算，所以他對那兩州的選舉策略不同 (他將他在Michigan選票上的名子除名，他也沒有在那兩州拉選票。)。若他早知道會發生這種事，他可能就會用不同的方式對待這兩州。所以，依照這個論點，若將Michigan 與 Florida 的票數算進去的話，這對希拉蕊也不公平，因為搞不好他的票數應該更多 (更少?)。

這種東西只有一個 focal point，就是遵照原先規定。因為若要更改原先的安排，我們需要花更多成本討論一些之前沒有在規定內的東西。算，要全算，還是算一半? 歐巴馬的票要怎麼分? 等等問題。這一些問題就沒有一個focal point了。

Hey! You have healthy teeth! You are hired!

An interesting new finding in labor economics:

Healthy teeth are a vital and visible component of general well-being, but there is little systematic evidence to demonstrate their economic value. In this paper, we examine one element of that value, the effect of oral health on labor market outcomes, by exploiting variation in access to fluoridated water during childhood. The politics surrounding the adoption of water fluoridation by local water districts suggests exposure to fluoride during childhood is exogenous to other factors affecting earnings. We find that women who resided in communities with fluoridated water during childhood earn approximately 4% more than women who did not, but we find no effect of fluoridation for men. Furthermore, the effect is almost exclusively concentrated amongst women from families of low socioeconomic status. We find little evidence to support occupational sorting, statistical discrimination, and productivity as potential channels of these effects, suggesting consumer and employer discrimination are the likely driving factors whereby oral health affects earnings.

[清大幫] 第五次分享會 - 生命力

希望各位可以來。因為這是一場極具意義的分享會，有淚，有歡笑，更有歌可以唱。

Congrats CCL!!!

恭喜我的好朋友通過第一階段篩選! 聽說有上千隊伍參賽，所以能道50強真的很不簡單。希望到時候可以拿第一，然後請客! Google 的錢就是要拿來跟大家分享的阿!!

Organized Crime Japanese Style

I've blogged about them before.

But a recent article is a good indicator on just how big this organization really is:

Over the last seven years, the yakuza have moved into finance. Japan's Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission has an index of more than 50 listed companies with ties to organized crime. The market is so infested that Osaka Securities Exchange officials decided in March that they would review all listed companies and expel those found to have links with the yakuza.

In the end of the article, the reporter doesn't have many kind words for these people. However, (not mentioned in the article) the yakuza have also helped out the japanese people in many commendable ways. Some japanese people regard them quite highly. In the end, their relationship with the police might be a longterm repeated cooperative relationship, which other cultures might have a hard time understanding.

High Menu Cost: So the Keynesians weren't BSing

Like a lot of small-scale entrepreneurs, Cathy Osborne worries that she'll go out of business if fuel prices rise above $4 a gallon. Not because she won't be able to buy gas at that price, but because she won't be able to sell it.

The old mechanical gas pumps with scrolling dials at her country store in Fauquier County lack the gears to go beyond $3.99 a gallon...."I don't know what I'm going to do. I don't have $30,000 to invest in new pumps."

5/19 企業家分享會

Fact of the Day: City Life is Hard!

From "The Logic of Life":

As a rule of thumb, each doubling of city size raises wages by 10 percent but raises prices by 16 percent.

Apparently, this surprising result comes from the data gathered by the foremost economist on cities, Ed Glaeser. So the question is why do people live in cities?





The Answer: Knowledge Spillover...............Huh?

I know my family didn't move to Taipei for this.

Stuck in Murakami Land

最近幾天我都是好幾本書一起看。因為前一陣子太忙了，所以想看的書都沒有看，所以現在囫圇吞棗，一次多本書。

我看的書大部分都事經濟學的書，但是熱愛文學的我也是時常看一些文學作品。我媽媽非常推薦村上春樹，所以我就買了一本 "Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman"。這一本是 Murakami 的第一本短篇小說集。我一相認為要看一個作家的寫作工力，就是要看他的短天小說寫得如何。因為要把一個意境完整且很有創意的在幾頁內闡述是需要極為豐富的想像力與文字駕馭能力。譬如說，在我心目中，Hemingway 就是一位非常優秀的作家，因為他的作品: Hills Like White Elephants 給讀者無限的想像空間，或是他自認為他最滿意的作品:

For sale: baby shoes, never used.

就六個字! 有趣吧! 你認為他在講什麼呢?

那 Murakami 呢? 我只能說，我最近幾天在看他短篇故事時，時間好像過的最快! 他的故事裡的人物就如我們身旁的一些人，迷失了自己的方向的人，失去了愛的人，得不到愛的人，不知道什麼是愛的人。這一些人都會經歷如夢一般的轉折，有一些會找到自己的歸屬，有一些會繼續迷失，但是在故事的過程中，讀者會跟主角一起成長一起發覺。就是這種感覺才會使我繼續讀下去。當然，故事裡的怪異的情境也是使我讀下去的動力。例如，"Nausea 1979" 就是講一位連續40天嘔吐的一位花花公子，而嘔吐前必定接到一通詭異的電話，這件怪事會使我一直讀下去，但是到了最後一句話，Murakami還是沒有跟讀者講說是什麼東西使他嘔吐，而嘔吐跟電話有何關聯。可能嘔吐的原因不重要，然而主角經歷這一件事的過程才是Murakami想表現出來的，可能他只是想表達一個孤獨的人，在腦裡的聯想與心理的反應。他的故事的結局大部分都與故事情節無關，我這麼說的意思是，最後讀者是不會得到一個完整的答案，但是在 Murakami Land 答案不重要吧。

Murakami 絕對已經在我的top ten 的authors 裡了。

搬到台北了!

我已經搬到台北了!!

我星期五就搬到重慶南路三段的新家。我覺得我爸媽很有眼光，選的地方不錯。(就在師大夜市附近，very good!)

我自己在星期五晚上，然後在星期六晚上跟藍柏祥，有做一點 "場勘"。所以若有朋友想要來的話，我知道哪一些好吃的地方可以去。

所以開放報名! 跟我連絡我就帶你吃好吃的玩好玩的。

ps: 我星期五，六與日在台北。

Economists are Needed

Hillary Clinton wants to appeal to the blue collar workers so bad that she is dismissing all educated opinion as elitist, and inconsiderate to the working people of America.

It started with:

“Well I’ll tell you what, I’m not going to put my lot in with economists.”

Then the ignorance was confirmed and continued:





Hillary Clinton is playing dirty. She knows the implications of a gas tax holiday, but she is trying to fool the people and get away with it. I guess she is willing to do anything to win, but this is just insulting the intelligence of the common people, especially to economists.


We are needed.

各為同志! 以後工作有著路了!

高中缺老師阿!!

高中有沒有必要學經濟學? 我認為要，但是頂多了解一下供給與需求，我認為就夠了。至於會不會需要成度與大學一年級的課程一樣，我認為這樣有一點過份了。畢竟，思想上，經濟學事需要夠成熟的人才能夠真正體會他的美，而不至於曲解他的意思。

但是，若有需要，我認為我們念經濟的當高中老師會相當勁爆。

Good Advice

A collection of good advice for young economists.

歐巴馬懂經濟，希拉蕊不懂

從健保到最近的石油稅的問題，歐巴馬的方案都比希拉蕊的好。應該是說希拉蕊的方案太差了。

希拉蕊希望能降低石油稅，在從石油商所多賺的錢抽稅。她希望這方案能夠降低美國人民的石油支出的負擔，也進一步，殺殺石油商的銳氣 (她每一次都在說，go after the oil companies......)。 但是這個方案真能達到此效果嗎?


歐巴馬的回應:

They argue that it would either have little impact or it would have a negative effect by either causing drivers to drive more or oil companies tosimply raise their prices.

這回的太漂亮了，因為希拉蕊的方案的確是會造成這樣的效果。為什麼呢? 就聽一聽 Paul Krugman 的解釋:

Why doesn’t cutting the gas tax this summer make sense? It’s Econ 101 tax incidence theory: if the supply of a good is more or less unresponsive to the price, the price to consumers will always rise until the quantity demanded falls to match the quantity supplied. Cut taxes, and all that happens is that the pretax price rises by the same amount. The McCain gas tax plan is a giveaway to oil companies, disguised as a gift to consumers.

Is the supply of gasoline really fixed? For this coming summer, it is. Refineries normally run flat out in the summer, the season of peak driving. Any elasticity in the supply comes earlier in the year, when refiners decide how much to put in inventories. The McCain/Clinton gas tax proposal comes too late for that. So it’s Econ 101: the tax cut really goes to the oil companies.

The Clinton twist is that she proposes paying for the revenue loss with an excess profits tax on oil companies. In one pocket, out the other. So it’s pointless, not evil. But it is pointless, and disappointing.

所以結論是歐巴馬比較懂經濟學，因此比較適合當總統。

清大幫分享會：遇見繆思，5/5 Mon 19:00@活中101

我第二次當PM，請大家一定要來!!

為什麼要去?

因為許恒瑞會當場作一首曲子，何介夫是我的表哥，周威成會告訴你如何在十字路口做抉擇。

還不來!?

Unintended Consequences: Mexican Driving Edition

A new article in the JPE:

In 1989, the government of Mexico City introduced a program, Hoy No Circula, that bans most drivers from using their vehicles one weekday per week on the basis of the last digit of the vehicle’s license plate. This article measures the effect of the driving restrictions on air quality using high-frequency measures from monitoring stations. Across pollutants and specifications there is no evidence that the restrictions have improved air quality. Evidence from additional sources indicates that the restrictions led to an increase in the total number of vehicles in circulation as well as a change in composition toward high-emissions vehicles.