Wednesday, December 31, 2008

The Future of Economics

Something that I 'partially' agree with. From MR:

In my possibly overdogmatic view, economics is most useful when its models are relatively simple and intuitive. We've run out of new models which are simple and intuitive. So the theory game is over. The standard, old data sets have been data mined to death. We're now on to the "can you build/create your own data set?" game. That game can and will last for a long time; in some ways it will favor go-getter extroverts just as the theory game favored introverts.

I think theory still has a bright future. The fact that our current models are flawed means that we can still find better ones. Whether or not they are still simple and intuitive is another thing, but that depends on the modeler's skill. Good theorists can still provide us with simple and plausible economic models.

Sometimes for new discoveries to occur, we need to throw away the old framework that we have been working with for so long. When marginal analysis was introduced to economics, it catapulted our subject to the forefront of social sciences. When information asymmetry was introduced, every subject in economics was fundamentally changed. We are at the edge of another breakthrough, I think.

Am I too optimistic?

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