Latest Nobel Buzz: Nobel Prize Prediction 2008

An article has boldly predicted that an economist of Indian decent will probably win the Nobel Prize this year. Their choices are;

1. Jagdish Bhagwati - International trade specialist
2. Avinash Dixit - Game theory, IO, International trade, .......
3. Partha Dasgupta - Development economics, environmental economics

I cannot say that I am familiar with their work, or even the fields that they have revolutionized, so I can't comment on this list. However, I would say that if Dixit wins, it probably won't be for his contributions to game theory or industrial organization, since there are plenty of other guys who have had more impact on these two fields.

The article continues to list some more economists who have a chance:
Peter Diamond - Macroeconomic titan
Dale Mortensen - search and matching theory in frictional unemployment
Christopher Pissarides - Again, search theory, unemployment
Elhanan Helpman - International trade titan
Robert Barro - Macroeconomic titan
Paul Krugman - New trade theory
Paul Romer - Endogenous Growth Theory
Gene Grossman - Work on asymmetric information (probably for incomplete contracts too)
Eugene Fama - Market Efficiency Hypothesis

I think all these guys deserve a prize. But in light of the recent financial turmoil, and the lack of common understanding that economists have displayed in response to this catastrophe, I think we should award the prize to Eugene Fama (and Kenneth French), and Richard Thaler (I really do not know why he is not mentioned more often). This award would be a joyful occasion to both sides of the profession: those who believe in government intervention and those who do not.

I studies finance during college, and I know how Fama's efficiency argument has been a basis for much of the deregulation argument (not to mention a whole bulk of finance theory is based on it), while Thaler's contributions to behavioral finance has led a whole new revolution on making economics more about homo sapiens than it is about homo economicus. In my opinion, both deserve the prize, and what better time to give the prize to them than now!